Join us as we break down the biggest real estate headlines shaping the market right now! In this episode of The Movoto Mic, we’re breaking down the latest real estate headlines with real estate journalist, James Rodriguez. We’ll dive into the impact of rising mortgage rates, discuss how first-time homebuyers are navigating the market, and explore what Gen Z’s entrance means for the future of home buying. Tune in as we read and analyze the biggest news shaping the housing market, and get expert insights on what to expect in 2024. For more updates follow Movoto on Instagram @movotorealestate or download the Movoto app.
Full Transcript:
0:12
Sophie: All right. Hello and welcome to the Movoto Mic, the official podcast of Movoto.com, the largest privately owned real estate search platform in the US. I’m your host, Sophie Brandeis, and I’m thrilled to be kicking off Season 2 today with my co-host, Jenna Hausen.
Jenna: Hi, Sophie!
Sophie: Well, this season, we’re going to shake things up a little bit. Each episode, we’ll bring you the top headlines in the housing market, real estate, and mortgage industries, and we’ll have experts weigh in with their insights. To help us start the season off strong, I’m excited to welcome James Rodriguez, Senior Real Estate Reporter at Business Insider, writing all about the national housing market.
0:52
Sophie: James, welcome to the Movoto Mic.
James: Thank you so much for having me!
Sophie: No problem. So we’re going to start off strong by talking about Freddie Mac. They just published their housing outlook for late October 2024. The spotlight of this outlook was first-time homebuyers. I pulled a quote from the outlook: “First-time homebuyers are increasingly driving demand in the housing market; however, they face headwinds in terms of affordability, supply, and overall economic conditions.” Wondering your thoughts?
1:25
James: Yeah, it’s interesting. I did a story back in January of 2023 that was basically talking about the situation first-time homebuyers found themselves in. I think the headline was something like, “First-time homebuyers are royally screwed,” which was a quote from someone I spoke to. They felt like first-time homebuyers were in an impossible position, where prices had risen so much, and then mortgage rates increased from their lows in 2021.
What we’re seeing now is the pendulum swinging in the other direction a little bit. First-time homebuyers have a slightly better chance with more inventory on the market compared to a year ago. I think in September, there was something like 30% more active listings than a year ago, and that’s a meaningful difference. We’ve also seen rates come down a bit from where they were a year ago.
Another factor is that many people made their moves early in the pandemic, and now they’re locked in with low mortgage rates. They’re not in a rush to move or refinance, so first-time buyers might face a bit less competition now. It’s always interesting to see how first-time homebuyers are affected by market shifts. Earlier in the pandemic, it seemed like first-time buyers were getting older and relying more on family help for down payments. We’re definitely keeping a close watch on how this group fares.
2:55
Sophie: Right. I found it interesting how this article talks about the importance of first-time homebuyers in driving market growth in the coming years. What are your thoughts on the role of Gen Z in homebuying over the next 5 to 10 years?
3:07
James: Yeah, that’s a great point. When we look at generational sizes, Millennials were the largest living generation, and they hit their prime homebuying years during the pandemic craziness. That also coincided with a shortage of homebuilding after the Great Recession, creating a perfect storm for the housing market.
I think we’ll see builders and pretty much everyone in the housing industry looking toward younger Millennials and Gen Z to fill in that demand. As Millennials age from starter homes to move-up homes, Gen Z will play a crucial role in keeping the market going.
4:00
Jenna: That’s a great insight. Let’s pivot to another topic. I was reading an article from NPR about how mortgage rates were supposed to come down, but instead, they’re rising. The quote I found interesting says, “I think the normal is maybe a 6% mortgage rate, the days of 3% and 4% mortgage rates are over, at least in my lifetime.” This was shared by Dr. Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors. What’s your reaction to that?
4:29
James: The first thing that comes to mind is how unpredictable mortgage rates are. You hear all these predictions and forecasts, but at the end of the day, it’s tough to look into that crystal ball and know where rates are going. What Yun is saying about 3% and 4% mortgage rates being over is what I’m hearing from a lot of economists. It seems those days are behind us, and nothing suggests they’re coming back soon.
Homeowners, sellers, and buyers will need to recalibrate their expectations. The difference between a 4% and 6% mortgage is significant—it could mean hundreds of dollars more per month. Buyers will need time to get used to the new norm for mortgage rates. People have been hoping for home prices to come down, but I think they’re going to have to adjust to the new reality of higher rates instead.
5:24
Sophie: Yeah, it seems like buyers and sellers will have to adjust. Also, I think it’s important to keep in mind that people make decisions to buy or sell homes for reasons that go beyond mortgage rates.
5:34
James: Exactly. There are all kinds of reasons why people buy and sell homes that have nothing to do with interest rates. It’s not a direct correlation. Another thing people need to understand is that just because the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it doesn’t mean mortgage rates will drop right away. The 10-year Treasury yield is what affects mortgage rates, and that’s a different lever than the ones the Fed is pulling.
6:05
Sophie: That’s an important distinction. Okay, switching gears, I came across an article in Fortune by Eleanor Pringle titled “Jerome Powell has accidentally jammed the property market—especially for the ultrarich.” The article points out that turnover in the first eight months of this year is at the lowest level in the past 30 years. What’s your take on this?
6:34
James: Yeah, that’s something I’ve been seeing as well. I did a story recently pointing out that housing market activity really slowed down after the pandemic. We had all this movement earlier in the pandemic when mortgage rates were low, and now it’s come to a halt with higher rates. A big part of this is the “lock-in effect,” where people who have these incredibly low mortgage rates are reluctant to sell their homes.
7:03
Sophie: Right. It seems like a lot of people, especially in the luxury market, bought homes with great mortgage rates during the pandemic, and now it’s hard for them to justify moving.
7:21
James: Exactly. People who bought expensive homes when rates were low are now reluctant to sell because they’ve got these great rates. That’s leading to a lot of pent-up demand in the luxury market, and it’s going to take time for people to shake loose from that. It’s not like we’re going to see a flood of people making moves all at once, but little by little, we’ll see some activity.
7:59
Jenna: That makes sense. And speaking of mortgage rates, I also read an article in Inman by Matt Carter that says, “Mortgage rates bounce to July levels on inflation worries.” The key quote from the article says, “Upside risks to inflation have diminished but they have not vanished.” What’s your first reaction to that?
8:19
James: Yeah, with the rate cuts we’ve seen, the signal from the Federal Reserve seems to be that they feel they’ve done a good job on inflation. But now, their focus is shifting toward making sure the job market remains stable. There’s still hesitation out there because of all the recession talk, but the Fed is trying to achieve that soft landing. And that balance will certainly have an impact on where mortgage rates go in the future. It’s all about watching the data closely to see what happens next.
9:03
Jenna: Definitely. What trends are you keeping an eye on as we move forward?
9:10
James: I’m mostly interested in mortgage rates and housing inventory. When people look out at the market, what they care about is how many choices they have, how quickly they need to act, and whether they’re going to be in bidding wars. So, I’m closely watching the number of active listings and how many new homes are hitting the market. Over the summer, we saw some inventory build-up, which was a positive sign. The affordability challenges are still there, but more choices give buyers a bit more confidence.
10:00
Sophie: It’s nice to hear there’s some optimism in the market, even if it’s a slow improvement. When preparing for this interview, I came across a lot of doom-and-gloom headlines, but you’re saying things will pick up, even if slowly.
10:24
James: Yeah, I think that’s right. There’s a lot of pent-up demand. People do want to make moves. But with the mortgage “lock-in effect,” it’s not going to be an overnight shift where everyone suddenly decides to buy or sell their homes. Little by little, we’ll see people getting dislodged and making moves.
11:03
Sophie: That’s reassuring to hear. So let’s talk a bit about major market shifts. I found a headline about Austin, a city where we all went to college. The headline reads, “Housing market shift: Six major markets where home prices are falling.” Austin is seeing one of the steepest declines as supply outpaces demand. What’s happening there?
11:40
James: Yeah, Austin is one of the most fascinating markets right now. It was a pandemic-era boomtown, and now you’re seeing price declines and rent decreases. You look around, and you see price cuts on listings. But from talking to economists and real estate agents, it seems like Austin is still in a good place long term. The city is going to continue to attract jobs, and people still want to live there.
Home prices are falling now because there was such a surge in building during the pandemic, but I don’t think this is a long-term problem. Austin was able to build a lot of inventory, unlike cities like San Francisco, which didn’t build as much during the same period. In the long run, I think Austin is going to be fine, but we’re seeing this temporary imbalance between supply and demand right now.
12:57
Sophie: It’s funny looking back at photos of Austin from when we were in school—the skyline looks completely different now.
13:16
James: Yeah, growing up in Austin, it’s wild to see how much it’s changed. During the pandemic, home prices were rising so fast that I wondered if Austin would become the next San Francisco, with skyrocketing prices making it unaffordable. Prices are still up compared to where they were before the pandemic, but they’ve come down a bit. I think this is just a temporary correction as builders continue to put inventory on the market.
13:56
Sophie: That’s a good perspective. Let’s talk about an upcoming report—the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. What are your thoughts on what to expect?
14:11
James: I’ll be watching to see if we continue to see a slowdown in home price growth. That’s been the trend lately, with modest growth instead of the crazy increases we saw earlier in the pandemic. I’ll also be paying attention to inventory levels as we wind down 2024 and look ahead to 2025. Buyers will be hoping for more affordability, but it will depend on where mortgage rates and inventory levels go.
14:45
Sophie: And for those who might not know, could you briefly explain what the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is?
14:51
James: Sure. It’s basically a measure of how home prices are changing month to month and year over year. It’s one of the key reports that people in the industry look at to see where home prices are headed.
15:10
Jenna: That’s helpful to know. So, I wanted to switch topics and talk about some of your articles, James. You’ve written a lot about generational trends and other topics. Are there any articles that stand out to you as timeless?
15:18
James: Yeah, one that stands out is a piece I wrote last spring about the “Housing Ice Age” and the mortgage “lock-in effect.” I think this will be a defining story for years to come. The 30-year mortgage is a gift because it allows homeowners to lock in their payments for decades, but it can also be a trap if rates go up, making people reluctant to move. That’s something we’re going to be talking about for years as people slowly shake loose from their low rates.
15:50
Sophie: That ties in beautifully with the themes we’ve been discussing today. Thanks so much for reading the news with us, James. Where can our listeners find your work?
16:05
James: You can find my articles on Business Insider. Just search for my byline under real estate. We’ve got a great team covering real estate across the country, mortgage rates, personal finance, and more.
16:27
Sophie: Thanks again for joining us, James!
Jenna: Thanks, James!
James: This was fun. Thanks for having me!
