In this episode of The Movoto Mic, we are joined by Chris Heller, President of Movoto.com, to explore the latest insights and strategies shaping the real estate landscape. From 2025 mortgage rate predictions to Australia’s innovative auction model and booming unexpected markets in the U.S., we break down the trends you need to know. This episode also goes over the November Jobs Report and its implications for the housing market, plus tips for navigating the current economy as a buyer or seller. Tune in for expert perspectives on the intersection of real estate, economics, and innovation!
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Transcript:
Sophie: 0:09
Hello and welcome to the Movoto Mic, the official podcast of Movoto.com, the largest privately owned real estate search platform in the US.
0:18
I’m your host, Sophie Brandeis, for Season Two.
0:21
We’re shaking things up a bit this season. Each episode, I’m going to bring you the top headlines for all things real estate, and we’ll have experts on to weigh in with their insights.
0:30
It will be just like you are reading the housing market news with an expert. To kick off this episode, I am excited to welcome Chris Heller.
0:36
Chris has years of experience all across the industry and is the president of Movoto.com. With that—welcome to the Mic, Chris.
Chris: 0:46
It’s always fun to chat with you.
HEADLINE: 4 mortgage interest rate scenarios that could occur in 2025
AUTHOR: Sharon Wu
PUBLICATION: CBS News
LINK: CBS News
Sophie: 0:48
All right, so I thought we would start things off by reading the headline of an article you were just featured in: Four Mortgage Interest Rate Scenarios That Could Occur in 2025.
Chris: 0:59
Sure.
Sophie: 1:03
Now, the article gave four different scenarios, and you provided your take on each of them. I was hoping we could talk through each scenario, and you could give your insight.
Chris: 1:06
All right.
Sophie: 1:07
So, Scenario One is continued rate stability.
Chris: 1:10
Yeah, which in the short term is a likely scenario. Right now, we don’t know if we’ll see any significant changes in the economic outlook, global dynamics, or anything else in the short run.
1:26
So, I think we’ll trend more toward stability, at least in the short term. By short term, I mean the next one to three months.
Sophie: 1:36
In the article, you mentioned that this outcome would require a delicate balance of steady employment figures, inflation settling near the Fed’s 2% target, and consistent economic growth without major shocks.
Chris: 1:47
Right. For it to be relatively stable, certain things need to happen, and I think we’ll see those things.
2:03
This includes steady employment figures, inflation settling closer to the Fed’s target in the 2% range, and ensuring consistent economic growth without any major shocks or hiccups.
Sophie: 2:29
Scenario Two is a gradual rate decline.
Chris: 2:34
For the Fed to lower rates, they’d need to see sustained progress in inflation metrics, with core inflation consistently below 3%.
2:42
They would also need to see stable or declining energy prices, slower wage growth, and trends that give them confidence things are improving. If these conditions are met, the Fed could ease up.
Sophie: 3:16
Scenario Three: rate volatility persists.
Chris: 3:19
This could be fueled by various factors—unpredictable geopolitical events, fluctuating inflation rates, erratic consumer behavior, or sudden changes in consumer spending. Any of these could cause rates to bounce around.
Sophie: 3:43
Scenario Four is a major rate hike or drastic rate cut.
Chris: 3:48
This is unlikely. However, if we were to see runaway inflation—caused by tariffs or disruptions in supply chains, for instance—it could pressure the Fed to cut rates to stabilize the economy.
4:11
Similarly, a significant recession might push the Fed to manipulate rates to stimulate the economy.
Sophie: 4:24
So, at the end of the day, which mortgage rate scenario is most likely to occur in 2025?
Chris: 4:33
The most likely scenario is a gradual decline to meet the Fed’s 2% goal. That’s my prediction—but, of course, things can always change.
HEADLINE: Is a ‘Trump bump’ on the way for the US housing market?
AUTHOR: Mav Rodriguez
PUBLICATION: Mortgage Professional America
LINK: Mortgage Professional America
Sophie: 4:47
Let’s talk about the next headline: Is a “Trump Bump” on the Way for the U.S. Housing Market? What are your thoughts here?
Sophie: 4:55
I’ve never heard the term “Trump Bump” before—have you?
Chris: 5:02
Yeah, it’s been used in several different sectors. I guess the converse of that would be a “Trump Dump” but I don’t know that anything that a new administration does in the short term is gonna have a big impact on housing. Ultimately what happens in housing is a function of supply and demand. Now, there’s a lot of things that impact supply and demand, like on the demand side, confidence levels, interest rates… on the supply side, price of materials, prolonged positive economic outlook which can cause someone like a builder or developer to say, ‘hey, let’s start, let’s start building because, you know, we think things are gonna keep moving in the right direction and we’ll be able to create a good profit’. So I focus more on fundamentals. I don’t think that a Trump bump will have an impact on the housing market in the short term.
HEADLINE: 6 Unexpected Cities Where the Housing Market Is Booming
AUTHOR: Kate McGregor
PUBLICATION: House Beautiful
LINK: House Beautiful
Sophie: 6:14
Next headline: Six Unexpected Cities Where the Housing Market Is Booming.
Chris: 6:20
The article mentions Springfield, Massachusetts; Manchester-Nashua, New Hampshire; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; and Canton, Ohio.
6:43
These are areas deemed more affordable, which attracts a specific segment of buyers, such as first-time buyers or downsizers.
HEADLINE: November jobs report shows a still-strong labor market
AUTHOR: Brooklee Han
PUBLICATION: HousingWire
LINK: HousingWire
Sophie: 7:54
Let’s move to the November Jobs Report. The headline is: November Jobs Report Shows a Still-Strong Labor Market.
Chris: 8:07
We’ve had a solid economy for several years, so it’s not surprising that the November jobs report reflected that strength.
HEADLINE: Australia has hit on a genius way to take the guesswork out of real estate deals
AUTHOR: James Rodriguez
PUBLICATION: Business Insider
LINK: Business Insider
Sophie: 9:42
Lastly, let’s talk about Australia’s housing market. The headline: Australia Has Hit on a Genius Way to Take the Guesswork Out of Real Estate Deals.
Chris: 10:01
This is about Australia’s auction-based real estate model, which is more transparent and efficient. Auctions have benefits but may not easily fit into the U.S. housing market due to differences in how transactions are structured.
Sophie: 10:30
What is an auction model? Why does Australia use it? What are the pros and cons, and why don’t we do it in the U.S.?
Chris: 10:33
An auction model is self-descriptive. It involves selling homes via auction. In the U.S., we traditionally put a home on the market, expose it to buyers, and negotiate once an offer comes in.
11:03
In an auction model, there is a set date and time for the auction. Interested buyers show up and bid, and if successful, the highest bidder walks away owning the home.
Sophie: 11:15
Why did this start in Australia?
Chris: 11:22
I don’t know the history, but I’ve been to Australia many times and spoken at conferences there. In the late 1990s or early 2000s, we introduced a version of this in California called value-range marketing.
11:42
It listed properties in a range to create an auction-like environment. It worked well in slower markets but faded in strong seller markets where traditional methods sufficed.
Sophie: 12:23
So an auction model is more beneficial in slower markets?
Chris: 12:43
Yes, because it creates demand where there might not be enough. However, auctions can work in all markets, depending on the property type.
13:07
In the U.S., auctions often involve unique or high-end properties that appeal to a niche audience.
Sophie: 13:31
Have you ever participated in an auction?
Chris: 13:52
Yes, I’ve participated as a buyer. I once tried to buy a unique property in Austin through auction. It had a fantastic view and ended up selling above market due to the competitive bidding.
Sophie: 14:08
Why don’t we see more auctions in the U.S.?
Chris: 14:10
The system here is different. In Australia, sellers (referred to as vendors) pay for all the marketing, which is critical for a successful auction. In the U.S., sellers aren’t used to paying upfront fees.
14:52
Adopting this model here would require significant changes in how transactions are structured, such as lower commissions and shifting marketing costs to the seller.
Sophie: 15:23
So it’s a cultural and structural difference?
Chris: 15:27
Exactly. Changing traditional methods is challenging, but auctions could work well in specific scenarios, like slow markets or for unique properties.
Sophie: 16:03
What kinds of properties benefit most from auctions?
Chris: 16:17
Unusual or high-end properties that don’t have wide appeal. Auctions help attract the right buyers and drive demand.
Sophie: 16:48
I didn’t realize auctions could be so strategic. Thanks for sharing that insight.
Chris: 16:55
Absolutely. It’s an interesting approach that can definitely serve a purpose in certain markets.
Sophie: 17:06
Thanks for reading the news with me! I’m sure we’ll do it again soon.
Chris: 17:14
My pleasure.
