The new year brings a renewed focus on personal goals: things like reading more and working out. Along with the resolve to improve physical fitness, many people are also committing to fiscal fitness—specifically, homeownership—as a goal for 2018.
The last few months of 2017 brought changes that are impacting home prices and real estate trends in 2018. As a result, we (along with the National Association of Realtors®) are forecasting that the housing market will cool slightly in 2018.
Here’s a breakdown of the major factors influencing our real estate predictions.
The New Tax Plan
Passed by Congress and signed into law by the President, the tax law places tighter restrictions on mortgage interest and property tax deductions. Often, even in a downturn, states with high property prices (and high taxes) remain unaffected—especially in regions with low housing inventory and high demand. However, the new law limits the amount of state taxes that can be deducted from federal income tax returns and caps the mortgage interest deduction—moves that are likely to limit growth in home prices in these markets to 1–3%.
Damage From Four Hurricanes
2017 put the squeeze on many areas known for reasonable home prices as well. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate struck the southern and southeastern US and Puerto Rico, affecting close to 15 million people and causing billions of dollars in property damage. The massive scale of these natural disasters is straining building supply inventories and homebuilder availability.
Mortgage Rates
Current interest rates at Wells Fargo, the largest mortgage lender in the nation (by market share) are at 4.00% for new purchases. However, three leading authorities foresee an increase in those rates:
- The Mortgage Bankers Association suggests rates will be 4.6% in 2018.
- The National Association of Realtors expects rates of 4.5% by the end of 2018.
- Realtor.com predicts 4.6% on average and up to 5% by year’s end.
Live Your Dream
While these factors may soften the housing market somewhat, the simple truth is that homeownership is still a fundamental part of the American dream and is key to building wealth—and keeping that New Year’s resolution of fiscal fitness.
