Here we go again: Financial analytics company Fiserv is predicting that America’s home prices are heading for a triple-dip.
The most recent real estate news from this organization calls for another 3.6% drop in home prices by June 2012, which means that they will have dropped from their 2006 peak down to 31% (2009), then to 33% (2010), and now to a new low of 35% below peak. Though the First-Time Homebuyer Credit and the robo-signing scandal both slowed the home prices free-fall over the last couple years, they’ve done nothing to prevent this third dip.
Truthfully, neither of these things could have stopped it. This imminent third dip is a result of several different factors, none of which were affected by the temporary stimulus provided by the First-Time Homebuyer Credit nor the foreclosure processing slowdown provided by the robo-signing scandal.
These factors are:
- The consistently high unemployment rate that has held steady above 9% (which doesn’t even include those that are underemployed and those whose unemployment benefits have run out)
- The “first quarterly increase in foreclosure filings,” which is something that hasn’t happened in three quarters
- The 14% uptick in new mortgage default warnings
- The 6 million homes in shadow inventory (defined as “homes in foreclosure that have yet to go back onto the market”) that could hit market anytime now
The triple dip brought on by these events (or fear of these events) will impact many markets, but will seriously impact those markets that have been hit the worst by the housing bubble bursting. Despite this bad news, some degree of recovery is expected — a home price increase of 2.4% between June 2012 and June 2013, to be precise, although there are some markets that Fiserv predicts will see an increase of 5% or more, in some cases double-digit recovery.
Here now are the markets expected to recover or worsen over the next year or two.
Ocala, FL – 22.4% increase
Napa, CA – 20.9% increase
Panama City, FL – 18.2% increase
Bremerton, WA – 17.9% increase
Carson City, NV – 17.9% increase
Madera, CA – 15.5% increase
Yuma, AZ – 9.5% increase
Yuba City, CA – 9.2% increase
Farmington, NM – 8.3% increase
Naples, FL – 18.9% decrease
Las Vegas, NV – 15.9% decrease
Riverside, CA – 14.8% decrease
Miami, FL – 13.2% decrease
Salinas, CA – 13% decrease
Fort Lauderdale, FL – 9.2% decrease (June 2012) then 6.7% decrease (June 2013)
Stephanie Huskey is the resident real estate blogger for Movoto and thanks her lucky stars she doesn’t live in a bad region of the country. Interested in getting her advice on your blog? She’s currently seeking guest blogging opportunities so she can share her knowledge with new communities! You can find her over here at Elance.com.
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